Weekly Mortgage Market Update: October 28, 2025
Market Kickoff
Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are climbing as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting.
Fed Watch Tomorrow
Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, but an unexpected halt to balance sheet runoff could have an even larger impact on rates. Powell’s October 14 comments hinted the end of tightening may be near—recent reserve tightness, with banks tapping Fed facilities and the Funds Rate drifting between 4.0% and 4.25%, could prompt an announcement tomorrow.
Home Price Pulse
Case-Shiller Index (broad measure): +0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted in August; raw data –0.3%; up 1.5% year-over-year (down from 1.6%).
FHFA Index (conforming loans only): +0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, with July revised to flat.
While annual gains continue to slow and some monthly declines appear, this August data precedes September’s rate drop—raising the likelihood of a rebound in upcoming reports.
ADP Jobs Sneak Peek
New weekly ADP data format shows the four-week average for private employment rising by about 14,250 jobs per week through October 11.
This Week’s Buzz
- Wednesday: Pending Home Sales
- Wednesday: Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Tech Talk
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) are challenging resistance at 101.31—a successful breakout could add roughly 30 basis points to 101.61. The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below the key 4% level and is now testing that threshold. Holding below 4% would signal strength and potential for further bond gains.
Lock/Float Advice
Continue Floating heading into the Fed’s announcement—momentum currently favors bonds, but market direction may hinge on tomorrow’s statement and press conference.
