Weekly Mortgage Market Update: October 14, 2025
Welcome to this week’s mortgage market roundup! Let’s dive into the latest trends and insights with a sprinkle of optimism.
Market Snapshot
Stocks are down sharply, while Mortgage Bonds are ticking slightly higher. The 10-year Treasury yield eased after flirting with 4% this morning and is trending lower.
Trade Tensions Heat Up
Rising U.S.–China trade tensions are supporting Bonds. China announced restrictions on rare earth minerals for the U.S. military, the U.S. responded with 100% tariffs effective November 1, and China sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipper. Risk assets are under pressure, which is helping global yields.
Oil Prices Slide
Oil fell to $58.25 per barrel, the lowest since May. If sustained, gas could dip below $3—and possibly toward $2.50—easing production and shipping costs and helping keep inflation in check.
Inflation and Fed Watch
The September CPI releases October 24—key for Social Security adjustments and the Fed’s October 29 rate decision. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (non-voting) signaled support for two more cuts this year.
Government Shutdown Update
Day 14 of the shutdown: air traffic controllers received ~70% pay this cycle; the October 28 paycheck could be missed without a resolution. Delays are rising and could worsen into the holidays.
Who’s Paying for Tariffs?
- ~25% absorbed by exporting countries
- ~25% absorbed within supply chains
- ~50% passed through to consumers
Small Business Sentiment Dips
NFIB optimism fell in September: expectations for improvement dropped 11 points; higher-sales expectations fell 4 points. Hiring plans edged up 1 point, but only 16% plan to hire (likely seasonal).
Technical Outlook
- Mortgage Bonds: Slightly higher, testing the 25-day moving average; a break above could add ~20 bps of upside.
- 10-Year Treasury: Yields easing after testing 4%; range remains wide, so vigilance is warranted.
Recommendation
Begin the week floating while watching technical levels and headline risk. Have questions or want to explore financing options? Reach out to your mortgage professional.
Disclaimer: This is a general market update and not financial advice. Consult a qualified advisor for guidance specific to your situation.
