Weekly Market Kickoff: Bonds Bounce & Fed Speak
Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are starting the week in the green, but headlines are swirling. Here is what you need to know right now.
Global Headlines: The Venezuela Situation
- Breaking: Over the weekend, Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was captured on drugs and weapons charges.
- Impact: Situation is fluid. While oil prices remain steady for now, this could impact global relations and energy markets moving forward. We are monitoring.
Local Spotlight: NEPA Market Update (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
We are seeing a shift here in Northeastern PA as we kick off 2026. The frantic pace is settling into a more normal rhythm.
- Days on Market (DOM): Homes are sitting a little longer. In Lackawanna County, the average DOM is hovering around 40 days, while Luzerne and Pike counties are seeing averages closer to 55 days.
What this means: This “winter chill” gives buyers breathing room. You aren’t forced to waive inspections or make snap decisions like you were in the summer.
- Prices: Despite the slowdown, prices remain resilient. Luzerne County values are up roughly 4% year-over-year.
- Inventory: Still tight. We are in a “Seller’s Market,” but it’s softening. If a home is priced right, it moves. If it’s overpriced, it sits for 70+ days.
The Fed: “Not Ready Yet”
Two voting Fed Presidents spoke this morning. The consensus? The labor market is softening, but a rate cut isn’t imminent.
Anna Paulson (Philly Fed): Sees a weak labor market that should stabilize. She predicts inflation will moderate, opening the door for a cut later this year—but we aren’t there yet.
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed):
- Labor: Admits the market has cooled (4.6% unemployment is a “clean” number).
- Inflation: Expects housing and service inflation to drop as wages decelerate.
- Stance: Believes the Fed is currently “neutral” because the economy is holding up. He advises against cutting now but says they are positioned to act if labor weakens further.
Warning: Watch for a potential inflation spike in January data (specifically healthcare) as annual prices reset.
The X-Factor: May Changeover
While Paulson and Kashkari are holding the line, remember: A new, significantly more dovish Fed Chair takes the reins in May. The Chair holds massive influence and could sway voters quickly.
The Week Ahead: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Big data week. The volatility usually hits mid-week.
- Wednesday: ADP Employment & JOLTS
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
- Friday: Housing Starts & The Big BLS Jobs Report
Technical Analysis
- Mortgage Bonds: Found solid support at the 25 & 50-day Moving Averages. We have about 18bp of room to the upside before hitting resistance at 99.88.
- 10-Year Treasury: Successfully held the 4.20% ceiling again. Currently testing 4.17%.
- The Goal: If yields break under 4.17%, the next target is a “triple floor” of support around 4.126%.
The Strategy
Begin the week floating. Let’s see if this momentum holds through the data drops.
